Calculated Risks has ratings and 46 reviews. Gerd Gigerenzer möchte uns mit seinem Buch “Das Einmaleins der Skepsis” zwei wichtige Dinge vermitteln. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven’t learned statistical thinking, we don’t understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk. Gerd Gigerenzer and Adrian Edwards. Bad presentation of .. the United States as Calculated risks: how to know when numbers deceive you. New York: Simon.
|Published (Last):||1 January 2005|
|PDF File Size:||20.23 Mb|
|ePub File Size:||7.14 Mb|
|Price:||Free* [*Free Regsitration Required]|
It could also correctly indicate true cancer, in which case the woman goes away sad and must consider treatment. There are all sorts of things that can generate a false positive result.
Eventually, I would like to teach Statistics courses in which I may formally address such innumeracy issues as Gigerenzer would hope.
Feb 18, Elizabeth rated it really liked it. Simon and Schuster- Education – pages. A critic of the work of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, he argues that heuristics should not lead us to conceive of human thinking as riddled with irrational cognitive biases, but rather to conceive rationality as an adaptive tool that is not identica Gerd Gigerenzer is a German psychologist who has studied the use of bounded rationality and heuristics in decision making, especially in medicine.
Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. Better for the doctor to have asked for a test and found nothing than to have not asked for the test and miss a tumor, thus risking malpractice.
Calculated Risks: How to know when numbers deceive you: Gerd Gigerenzer – William M. Briggs
The author comes up with many other counterintuitive concepts. There was a problem filtering reviews right now. Learn more about Amazon Prime.
Feb 09, Dave rated it really liked it. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. I was surprised to find myself enjoying reading a book about statistics. This gives false hope and causes a terd in treatment. Gigerenzer is on a crusade to reform the way in which probabilities are reported by the legal and medical professions.
We are generally beset by what he calls innumeracy – a lack of understanding of numbers and what they mean. This book is an invaluable tool for understanding what is meant when someone says “One in Five However, the probability that a person who tests positive for the virus actually has the virus is a separate gigerenzwr altogether, and is utterly distinct from the previous one.
The text is somewhat lengthy and repetitive, but accessible for a wide range of audience, especially non-technical readers.
Unfortunately I have to admit that I’m one of those people who wasn’t exactly very good in maths and this books pretty much underlines the seriousness of that.
Let’s riwks you have a cancer that has a prevalence of 0. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Basically it teaches you to fully grasp the concept of uncertainty in situations, and convey it to other people in a way that doesn’t distort any of the important stuff.
Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You
The author persuasively argues that ineffective presentations using relative or single-event probabilities clouds the mind of readers including medical and law professionals and induces misleading perspectives. Preview — Calculated Risks by Gerd Gigerenzer.
Refresh and try again. Gigerenzer uses logic, math, and common sense to explain the fascinating pull of statistics used by those who try to influence us. Cognitive scientis At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. I used to believe, but the author shook my firm believe in this.
Calculated Risks: How to know when numbers deceive you: Gerd Gigerenzer
To get the free app, enter your mobile phone number. This books gives some good advice for the layman on how to correctly interpret the information. This guy stands firmly by his claims and backs it up with research. For me, as a medical student, the day-to-day applications of this book are endless.
And the result showed that out of one hundred who took drug A, 6 patients were cured. Customers who viewed this item also viewed. Jul 18, Marcelle rated it really liked it Shelves: This is a fascinating book analyzing how we are less Cartesian than we think.
Providing diagnostic information in the form of frequencies benefits both patient and doctor because both will have a better understanding of the true risk. Frequently, he reiterated many points from early in the book in later chapters. Mammograms can show a noninvasive cancer called ductal carcinoma in situwhich is predominately nonfatal and needs no treatment, but is initially seen as a guess of cancer. What risk, you might ask, is there for an asymptommatic woman in having a mammogram?
Apparently highly-educated professionals like doctors and lawyers are indisputably awful at math. Withoutabox Submit to Film Festivals. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. However the book has very little to say on the contentious issue of assessing the prior in the first place which in medical terms equates to understanding the prevalence of the disease; in legal terms it is the population of possible sources of the DNA I’d read about probabilistic and natural frequencies before, but until now, I’d never realised what those claims made about the reliability of DNA fingerprinting matches really implied, and how ambiguous the numbers can be, especially when manipulated by prosecutors and ‘expert’ witnesses.
The book is largely slanted toward other similar examples in health and medicine; the chapter on DNA evidence and how poorly it’s presented in court was eye opening. In subsequent discussion about colorectal cancer and prostate cancer screening, he drives home the difference between conditional probabilities and natural frequencies.