Without forecasting, we cannot assess the disparity between supply and demand nor how effective an HR program is in reducing the disparity. different elements: job analysis, forecasting demand and supply, and legal Company president, manager, director of personnel, legal counsel, labor relations. Human Resource supply forecasting is the process of estimating availability of human resource followed after demand for testing of human resource.
Supply Forecasting measures the number of people likely to be available from within and outside the organization, having allowed for absenteeism, internal movements and promotions, wastage and changes in hours and other conditions of work.
The supply analysis covers areas like: Existing number of people employed by occupation, skill and pontential, source of supply from within the condition and Effect of changing condition of work and absenteeism Human Resource supply forecasting is the process of estimating availability of human resource followed after demand for testing of human resource.
For forecasting supply of human resource we need to consider internal and external supply.
A Clerk is a person employed in an office or bank to keep records, accounts, and undertake other routine administrative duties: A clerk is a white-collar worker who conducts general office tasks, or a worker who performs similar sales-related tasks in a retail environment a retail clerk. The responsibilities of clerical workers commonly include record keeping, filing, staffing service counters and other administrative tasks.
The head of the business means that is any person who has authority and power in organization to show and provide the direction toward the achievements of organization goals through initiate various methods and techniques or the accomplishment of the objectivity of organization.
In organization the head of the business is Manager, where by the manager is the person who responsible for controlling administering all or part of a company or similar organization. The following are the major things that managers tend to consider when it comes to Human resource planning process as the key elements; Human Resource Planning Organizations typically plan their future needs for supplies, equipment, building capacity, and financing.
Organizations must also plan to ensure that their human resource needs are satisfied. The human resource planning function involves at least three different elements: In Forecast demand, Forecasting Projecting the number and type of people needed to meeting organization objectives. A variety of organization factors including, competitive strategy, technology, structure and productivity can influence the demand for labour.
For example utilization of advanced technology is generally accompanied by less demand for low skilled workers and more demand for knowledge workers. External factors such as business cycles-economic and seasonal trends can also play a role in human resource demand Forecasting demand has two Approaches in explaining human resource planning in the organization: Is concerned with determining the number of employees required in a future period of time, under that approach there are uses of statistical or mathematical techniques which will be useful in estimating the quantity of man power through work load analysis and workforce analysis.
As far as possible, the work load of each department should be estimated in tangible units. It is,therefore,necessary to make a provision for loss of current manpower due to these factors Qualitative Approach Skills analysisthe quality of manpower required varies from job to job. Therefore the quality of employees required for a job can be determined only after determining the job requirements. Under that approach there is less statistical mathematical, which will attempt to reconcile the interests, abilities and aspiration and individual employees with the current and future staffing needs of an organization but it rely on experts who assist in preparing forecasts to anticipate staffing requirements.
Demand and Supply Forecasting: Factors and Methods
In Forecasting supply Forecasting supply involves determining what personnel will be available. The two sources are internal and external: Factors managers typically consider when forecasting the supply of personnel include promoting employees from within the organization; identifying employees willing and able to be trained; availability of required talent in local, regional, and national labor markets; competition for talent within the field; population trends.
Here working capacity of each employee is calculated in terms of man-hours. Man-hours required for each unit is calculated and then number of required employees is calculated. The example is given below: Long range demand forecasting for human resources is more responsive to statistical and mathematical techniques. With the help of computers any data is rapidly analyzed. The following are the methods of forecasting used under this category: Under this method the ratios are calculated for the past data related to number of employees of each category i.
Future production and sales levels, work load, activity levels are estimated with an allowance of changes in organization, methods and jobs. The future ratios are estimated. Then future human resources requirement is calculated on the basis of established ratios. This method is easy to understand.
Value depends upon accuracy of data. Econometric models are built up on the basis of analysis of past statistical data establishing the relationship between variables in a mathematical formula. The variables are those factors such as production, sales, finance and other activities affecting human resource requirement. Econometric model is used to forecast human resource requirements based on various variables. Elmer Bureks and Robert Smith have developed a mathematical model for human resource forecasting based on some key variables that affects overall requirement for human resources of the organisation.
They have given an equation. This method is used when the values of G, x and y are accurate.
Demand and Supply Forecasting: Factors and Methods
To obtain the values of G, x and y different statistical techniques are used. Regression analysis is used to forecast demand for human resources at some point of time in future by using factors such as sales, production services provided etc. This method is used when independent and dependent variables are functionally related to each other.
Nowadays computers are used to solve regression equations for demand forecasting. Supply forecasting means to make an estimation of supply of human resources taking into consideration the analysis of current human resources inventory and future availability. The first step in supply forecasting is to take a stock of existing HR inventory as follows.
Count of the total number of people available department-wise, sex- wise, designation-wise, skill-wise, pay roll-wise etc. It consists to number and category of employees of each job family i.
It consists of age-wise number and category of employees. This gives us age composition of human resources. Dynamism, creative abilities innovativeness is present in young employees while making of proper judgment and display of maturity is shown by elderly employees. Organisations prefer both young and old employees. Human resource planning should give due consideration to age-wise human resource mixing young and old employees in due proportions.
Organisation should take a stock of present inventory of skill, employees with number of years of experiences 10 yrs, yrs, 20 yrs and more etc. This consists of educational qualifications of the employees academic and technical and special qualifications if any and the training received by the employees. This includes pay and allowance-wise and total emoluments-wise stock taking. Inventory of male and female employees of the organisation. It includes the stock of local employees and the employees belonging to other areas such as different states of India.
There are several human capacities or potentials required for performing jobs at the workplace. Requirement of these along experience need to be taken into consideration while taking stock of human resource inventory. Labour wastage should be taken into account while making future forecast and find out the reasons of people leaving the organisation.
Action can be taken to arrest the labour wastage and replacement of uncontrollable losses. HR manager must know how to make wastage analysis.
For measuring permanent total loss due to labour the following labour turnover formula is used. This helps them forecast, the rate of potential loss, causes of loss etc. The steps can be taken to reduce loss. HR Manager can calculate labour stability index by using the formula given below. The potential losses can be classified as permanent total loss, permanent partial loss, Temporary total loss and Temporary partial loss.What Is The Relationship Between Demand And Supply Forecasting Techniques In The HR Planning Process
Let us analyse these losses. Permanent total loss is due to deaths, voluntary quits retirement, dismissals, retrenchment, and promotions out, demotions and transfers out.
This can be filled in by new recruits, promotions in and transfers in. Permanent partial loss is due to loss of some skills, potentials and capabilities because of ill health or accidents.